Red Eye Investing

 Holding a business that’s executing rather than cheering short-term hype. 📌 But: “Is it still undervalued, or has the market already run ahead?” Based on current metrics and growth trajectory, my view is that Blue Bird is slightly undervalued — meaning I’m comfortable holding, believe there’s still upside — but I’m also realistic that some of the upside has already been baked in. Patience + seeing the bus roll (literally) = the combo. #Investing #ValueMindset #IndustrialGrowth Valuation Snapshot & Commentary Blue Bird’s current P/E is ~15-16× according to Simply Wall St. Simply Wall St +2 Simply Wall St +2 That P/E is below its peers in the machinery/industrial sector (peer avg ~17-18×) and below the industry average (~24×) per one analysis. Simply Wall St Intrinsic / DCF valuation models: One gives a fair value around US$66.82 vs current ~$55-60, suggesting ~20% upside. Value Investing +1 Company fundamentals: Strong recent results — in 2024 revenue gre...

 But I’m not panicking — because sometimes a dip is simply the market’s fear, not the business failing. 📌 The question: “Is this a bargain… or a sign of trouble ahead?” Based on the latest numbers, I believe QFIN is undervalued , meaning this downside may represent an opportunity — but with a caveat: it’s not without risks. Sitting tight, watching updates, and believing in the long-term play. #Investing #Contrarian #ValueHunt Valuation Snapshot & Commentary Here are some key highlights for QFIN: What looks good (undervaluation signs): QFIN’s P/E ratio is very low — around ~3-4× earnings in certain reports, which is far below typical consumer finance or fintech peers. Simply Wall St +2 StockAnalysis +2 Some fair-value models put its value much higher (for example one model estimated fair value around US$117 compared to current ~US$25). Simply Wall St +1 It appears financially healthy: metrics like debt/equity are low, margins are strong in analyses, etc. ChartM...

 Holding a great business, long term mindset. 📌 But: “Is it still undervalued, or has the market got ahead of itself?” Based on the latest metrics and growth trajectory, my view is that Alphabet is fairly valued to slightly overvalued — meaning I’m comfortable holding (since this isn’t a panic situation), but I’m not expecting huge upside from a valuation rerate alone. Patience + execution = the winning combo. #Investing #LongTerm #TechGrowth Valuation Snapshot & Commentary Alphabet’s trailing P/E ≈ ≈ 26.9× and forward P/E ≈ 25.5×. GuruFocus +3 StockAnalysis +3 Simply Wall St +3 One DCF-based intrinsic value model gives a fair value around US$218 vs current price ~US$253, implying it’s ~14% overvalued in that model. Value Investing Another site estimates fair value at ~US$246.79, saying the stock is slightly overvalued (current price ~US$253). Simply Wall St It trades at a P/E lower than many tech peers (peer average ~54× in one comparison) which suggests...

 Holding the business long-term rather than chasing the next “hot” trade. 📌 The question: Is Amazon still a bargain, or has the value run ahead of fundamentals? Based on recent valuation metrics, there’s a decent case that it’s slightly undervalued — meaning I’m comfortable staying invested, but I’m not expecting fireworks tomorrow. Patience and consistency: the quietly powerful combo. #Investing #LongTerm #ValueMindset Valuation snapshot & commentary: Many analysts estimate a 12-month price target for Amazon somewhere around US$260-270 , which implies ~20-25% upside from today’s price. Trefis +2 StockAnalysis +2 One intrinsic value model puts Amazon at about US$251 versus current ~US$213, suggesting ~18% upside. Value Investing On metrics: its trailing P/E (≈ 32x) is lower than many peers in the retail/tech space (peer average P/E ≈ 40x) — which argues in favour of relative value. Simply Wall St On the flip side: its valuation is still above the broader m...

  My Position: Down 22%, What Now? As an investor in DoubleDown Interactive (NASDAQ: DDI) , I’m currently sitting on a 22% loss . The stock is trading at $10.22 , well below its 200-day moving average of $12.68 . Despite this, analysts have a price target of $22.67 , suggesting a potential 121% upside . Literally seconds after I bought the stock, martial law was declared in South Korea. And the stock hasn't recovered since. And with weak momentum, declining revenues, and political risks in South Korea (where the company is headquartered), I need to decide— buy more, hold, or cut my losses? Strong Fundamentals, But Growth Concerns At first glance, DoubleDown looks like a deep-value stock with compelling financials: Market Cap: $506M Enterprise Value: $172M (extremely low for a profitable company) P/E Ratio: 4.41 (incredibly cheap vs. industry average of 15-20) Price-to-Book Ratio: 0.62 (suggests the stock is trading at a deep discount) Free Cash Flow Yield: 25.98% (indicat...

The Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX) has been on my radar for a while, primarily because it provides a straightforward way to invest in the growing demand for copper. However, as of now, I'm 4% down on my investment, and I’m questioning whether I should hold, buy more, or cut my losses. Here's what I’ve discovered while analyzing this ETF. What Is the Global X Copper Miners ETF (COPX)? The Global X Copper Miners ETF tracks the Solactive Global Copper Miners Total Return Index, offering exposure to leading companies involved in copper mining and processing. Copper is often referred to as “Dr. Copper” due to its ability to indicate global economic health, making this ETF an intriguing play on industrial demand and the clean energy transition. Key Stats at a Glance Ticker: COPX Expense Ratio: 0.65% (a bit higher than broader index ETFs, but acceptable for a niche fund) Net Assets: $2.66 billion Dividend Yield: Around 2.5%, which is a nice bonus for long-term holders Top Holdi...