Portfolio update: I’m currently up ~30% on Blue Bird Corporation this year.

 Holding a business that’s executing rather than cheering short-term hype.

šŸ“Œ But: “Is it still undervalued, or has the market already run ahead?”

Based on current metrics and growth trajectory, my view is that Blue Bird is slightly undervalued — meaning I’m comfortable holding, believe there’s still upside — but I’m also realistic that some of the upside has already been baked in.

Patience + seeing the bus roll (literally) = the combo.
#Investing #ValueMindset #IndustrialGrowth

Valuation Snapshot & Commentary

  • Blue Bird’s current P/E is ~15-16× according to Simply Wall St. Simply Wall St+2Simply Wall St+2

  • That P/E is below its peers in the machinery/industrial sector (peer avg ~17-18×) and below the industry average (~24×) per one analysis. Simply Wall St

  • Intrinsic / DCF valuation models: One gives a fair value around US$66.82 vs current ~$55-60, suggesting ~20% upside. Value Investing+1

  • Company fundamentals: Strong recent results — in 2024 revenue grew 19% and adjusted EBITDA hit $183 m with a 13.6 % margin. investors.blue-bird.com

  • They reaffirmed full-year 2025 guidance: net revenue $1.4-1.5 billion, adj. EBITDA $190-210m.

My Verdict: Slightly Undervalued

Given all that:

  • The valuation looks reasonable and even perhaps a bit conservative relative to its growth and recent performance.

  • There appears to be upside room of ~15-20% in valuation models.

  • But: With a 30% gain already, some of the market’s expectations may be embedded. So the risk–reward is less skewed than when you buy at a deep discount.

  • If I were you: I’d stay invested, but keep my expectations moderate — upside is still there, but you’re not buying at a screaming bargain.

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