Portfolio update: I’m currently up ~30% on Alphabet this year.

 Holding a great business, long term mindset.

šŸ“Œ But: “Is it still undervalued, or has the market got ahead of itself?”

Based on the latest metrics and growth trajectory, my view is that Alphabet is fairly valued to slightly overvalued — meaning I’m comfortable holding (since this isn’t a panic situation), but I’m not expecting huge upside from a valuation rerate alone.

Patience + execution = the winning combo.
#Investing #LongTerm #TechGrowth

Valuation Snapshot & Commentary

  • Alphabet’s trailing P/E ≈ ≈ 26.9× and forward P/E ≈ 25.5×. GuruFocus+3StockAnalysis+3Simply Wall St+3

  • One DCF-based intrinsic value model gives a fair value around US$218 vs current price ~US$253, implying it’s ~14% overvalued in that model. Value Investing

  • Another site estimates fair value at ~US$246.79, saying the stock is slightly overvalued (current price ~US$253). Simply Wall St

  • It trades at a P/E lower than many tech peers (peer average ~54× in one comparison) which suggests relatively “good value” among large tech. Simply Wall St+1

  • The company’s growth story is strong (e.g., operating profit projected to hit ~$130B in 2025) and the market seems to still be assessing how big its AI/cloud push will be.

My Verdict: Fair to Slightly Overvalued

Given the data:

  • The multiple (~25-27× earnings) isn’t crazy expensive for a major tech grower, which supports holding.

  • But the discount to intrinsic/fair value is limited or negative in some models — meaning not much margin for error.

  • With a 30% year-to-date gain, some of the upside may reflect future hopes (AI/cloud growth, etc) rather than guaranteed performance.

  • So yes — I’d say it’s fairly valued, maybe slightly overvalued. If you’re staying invested, make sure you believe in the execution story (AI, search, cloud) rather than just valuation bounce.

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